CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-09-09T00:16:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2014 Sep 09 0739 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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The partial halo CME that was first observed by SOHO/LASCO and Cactus on 9 September at 00:06UT is associated to the M4.5 flare that took place in NOAA 2158. This Long Duration Event (LDE) started at 23:12UT, reached maximum x-ray flux at 00:29UT, and ended at 01:31UT. SDO/AIA-imagery indicate post-flare coronal loops, coronal dimming and an EIT-wave (as detected by Solar Demon). A type II radio-burst was observed by the Learmonth Radio Observatory, from which a shock speed of 999 km/s was deduced. 
The CME seems very wide (300 degrees or more), and the plane-of-the-sky speed around 710 km/s. The bulk of the CME seems to be directed away from the Earth (to the northeast). However, in view of the currently observed CME features, there's still a good chance Earth will receive a glancing blow from it. Estimated impact time is 12 September at 01:00UT, with an uncertainty of 12 hours. A minor geomagnetic storm is possible. CME features, arrival time and geomagnetic impact will be fine-tuned as STEREO- and more SOHO/LASCO-imagery will become available.    


:Issued: 2014 Sep 09 1235 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40909
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Sep 2014, 1209UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 09 Sep 2014 until 11 Sep 2014)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Sep 2014  10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Sep 2014  10CM FLUX: 162 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Sep 2014  10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 013
COMMENT: There are currently 8 sunspot groups visible. NOAA 2157 seems to
be slightly declining and simplifying. NOAA 2158 developed some small spots
to the west and south of the main spot. Except for the northern part, this
main spot is now completely surrounded by opposite magnetic polarity flux.
Both NOAA 2157 and 2158 retained their delta structures.  Two C-class
flares and 1 M-class flare were recorded. The strongest event was a long
duration M4.5 flare peaking at 00:29UT and originating in NOAA 2158. SDO
/AIA-imagery indicated post-flare coronal loops, coronal dimming and an
EIT-wave. A type II radio-burst with an associated shock speed of 999 km/s
was observed. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, currently still enhanced
at 2 pfu, has not increased in response to this flare (so far).    The M4.5
flare was associated to a halo CME first observed by SOHO/LASCO on 9
September at 00:06UT, with a plane-of-the-sky speed around 560 km/s . The
bulk of the CME is directed away from the Earth (to the northeast), but
there's still a good chance Earth will be impacted by the CME-driven shock.
Estimated impact time is 12 September at 03:00UT, with an uncertainty of 12
hours.        There remains a reasonable chance on an M-class flare. The
warning condition for a proton event remains in effect.     Solar wind
speed was mostly between 350 and 450 km/s, with Bz oscillating between +5
and -5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet.    Quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next three days, possibly
modulated by the high speed stream from a coronal hole that passed the
central meridian on 5 September. On 10 September, there's a chance on
unsettled conditions with an isolated active period in response to the
possible glancing blow from the 6 September CME. On 12 September, the
impact of the halo CME related to the M4.5 flare from 9 September may
result in active conditions and possibly a brief period of minor
geomagnetic storming.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 126, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 08 Sep 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 156
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 164
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 010
AK WINGST              : 006
ESTIMATED AP           : 005
ESTIMATED ISN          : 110, BASED ON 29 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
08  2312  0029 0131 N12E29 M4.5 1N       48/2158      CTM/1 
END

BT

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